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Toncoin Forms Bullish Pennant Amid Rising Burn Rate and Transactions

Toncoin (TON) is showing signs of a potential bullish breakout despite its recent price decline. On-chain activity, including increased wallet activations and token burns, supports a positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.

Toncoin’s Current Price Performance

  • Current Price: $5.35 (down 7.14% in the last 24 hours).
  • Decline from ATH: Over 35% below its highest level last year.
  • Comparison: Lagging behind cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and XRP, which have recently achieved record highs.

On-Chain Activity Highlights

Wallet Activations:

  • Daily activations hit 185,395 on Friday, the highest since December 13.
  • Total activated wallets exceed 38.8 million, signaling growing user engagement.

Token Burns:

  • Daily token burns surged to 12,000 TON, the highest since November 2023.
  • This comes as token minting declined to 80,800, down from nearly 90,000 earlier this year.

Ecosystem Fees:

  • Fees collected in the TON ecosystem rose to 23,790 TON, marking the largest increase in nearly a month.

Challenges

Toncoin’s price pressure appears linked to underperformance by key ecosystem tokens:

  • Hamster Kombat, Notcoin, and Catizen have all seen double-digit losses.
    These struggles could be weighing on Toncoin's broader market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Toncoin is forming a symmetrical triangle on its daily chart, often a precursor to significant price movements:

Triangle Formation:

  • Upper trendline connects the highest swings since June 15.
  • Lower trendline links the lowest levels since September 2023.

Pattern Implications:

  • The triangle follows a sharp rise in price (from below $1 to $8.30), suggesting the potential for a bullish pennant.
  • If the pattern resolves bullishly, Toncoin could target its all-time high of $8.30, representing a 55% upside from current levels.

Analyst Perspectives

Darkfost (CryptoQuant):

  • Toncoin’s annualized realized volatility has dropped below the 0.25 threshold, a level often associated with market reversals.

Normalized Risk Metric:

  • Indicates a low-risk period, which typically precedes major price swings.

Outlook

While Toncoin’s price has faced short-term pressures, strong on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest a bullish breakout could be imminent. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the bullish pennant formation leads to a rally toward its previous highs.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: $5.00 (psychological level).
  • Resistance: $6.50 (upper triangle boundary) and $8.30 (all-time high).

If Toncoin breaks above the symmetrical triangle, it could signal the beginning of a new bullish cycle.